Archive for the 'Real Estate' Category

Feb 11 2008

The Equity Question – Revisited

Published by Guest Author under Real Estate

Building on the article I wrote on Friday I'd like to talk about an article I read over at CNN Money that discusses homeowner's who are in denial.  

Harris Interactive conducted a survey for Zillow.com of homeowners.  The poll was to see if homeowners believed their property value had declined in value.   The survey of 1,619 homeowners found 36% believe their home has increased in value, and another 41% believe their value has stayed the same. Only 23% believe their home has lost value.

While I do know that not all home values have decreased (values in the area around my personal residence have increased around 4% this last year), those other 77% have a rude awakening coming.  If I were the lending institutions that survey would scare the heck outta me.  When those people do realize their house price has declined, will they decide to walk away too?

Now I know that there is a good margin of error on this survey.  It was of all homeowners.  Those people that have been in their house for 10 years will most likely not walk away, that is unless they did a cash out refinance and are now upside down.  A survey of those who have been in their home less than 5 years would be more accurate in gauging the market for the risk of the "walk away" happening.

web log for us – those that owning the home you live in is a long road, not a quick investment

No responses yet

Feb 08 2008

The Equity Question

Published by Guest Author under Real Estate

Home Equity    Much has been written about how ARM's and the decline in value of property has caused the foreclosure mess we are in.  There is one aspect of the loosened lending standards which had gradually made its appearance that, I believe, has a much stronger impact on the current market than any other.  This one factor will be what causes more of a long term mess in the mortgage crisis than anything else.

    This problem is the low down payments that many people have used to secure their properties.  These low down payment loans will have far reaching consequences in the mortgage mess that is happening now.  

    There has been a recent rise in the mentality of borrowers to walk away from the property they own.  This mentality has come from the feeling that they have lost equity in the property.  Has equity been lost?  For someone who only has 3% or less of their own money tied up in a property, it sure has.  

    A drop of 10% in market price of a property for someone who has only 3% or less of their own money tied up in that property is a sure fire candidate for thinking there is no reason for keeping the house.  They are upside down on the mortgage and feel that they shouldn't have to pay for something that isn't worth the price.  This mentality has even been addressed on an earning call by Wachovia CEO Ken Thompson.  He described said "[These are] people that have otherwise had the capacity to pay, but have basically just decided not to, because they feel like they've lost equity, value in their properties."

    On a side note, this is one key reason that with all things in life I always look at the total price I am going to pay to see if it is worthwhile.  I still remember flustering a salesman when shopping for a car a few years ago.  He kept asking me what I could afford a month.  I kept answering the same way.  It doesn't matter what I can afford a month.  I want to talk about the total price of the car.  After a few minutes of going back and forth like this he excused himself and got the floor manager to talk to me.  I can only imagine he was relatively new to not be able to work through the total price of a car.  OK, back to real estate.

    What is the effect of this on the future of mortgages in the United States?  We see now a tightening of lending standards.  Sub-prime mortgages are hard to get.  This has spilled slightly into the prime mortgage arena. In the future we will see a stricter guideline on no lending for 3% or less down mortgages for the prime borrowers.  We will see it virtually disappear for those in the subprime market.

    What does this mean for the buy and hold investor?  The same thing that I have been talking about for quite a while.  It's a good time to be an investor if you have your money lined up.  Less people buying houses and more people walking away from their homes provides a nice pool of tenants to choose from

web log for us – those that know you buy to get instant equity

No responses yet

Oct 21 2007

The mortgage mess is claiming a new group of victims: renters.

    I can't help but thinking that everyone wants to claim victim here.  Sure, these people are in a bad spot, but a victim?  I don't think so.  These people who are renters have not lost their jobs, have not fallen on hard times.  they simly have to move.  Agreed, it is a hassle, and there may be times where they will lose a security deposit, but they are still on their feet.

    I see this as a way for the market to correct itself.  As an investor I am waiting for the good deals to come along.  Once they do I will grow my portfolio as much as possible to take advantage of the market conditions.  Some of these "victims" can easily turn the situations around to become investors themselves.  My first property I woned came because I was a renter in a place that went into foreclosure.  I ended up buying it from the bank at a deep discount.

    One thing that renters will face is higher demand for apartments.  This will cause rent prices to rise but this is simple economics.  I didn't see any government agencies talking about all the landlords that were lowering rent or having units sit unoccupied for long periods of time in the recent boom market of sales?  When all you needed to get a loan was a pulse the rental market slowed considerably.  Now there is a correction.  I say, let it correct itself!

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/103718/Mortgage-Turmoil-Hits-Renters

The mortgage mess is claiming a new group of victims: renters.

Across the country, a rising number of landlords are falling behind on mortgage payments, sending their properties into foreclosure, according to legal-services attorneys, local officials and financial experts — and in many cases, their tenants are being forced out of their homes. Often, the tenants' first inkling of trouble occurs when they get a letter from the bank directing them to leave the premises.

"They just don't know what to do — they leave town, move in with their mothers, end up in shelters," says Janet Merrill, an attorney with the Massachusetts Justice Project, a Worcester legal-services agency that runs a hotline for low-income people.

Strong demand and a tight supply is making for a competitive rental market in San Francisco. And experts say it will be January before the full impact of the mortgage crisis on the rental market is known.

Ms. Merrill's group gets four to five calls a day from renters facing eviction resulting from foreclosure. One caller recently received a letter from a bank saying her six-unit apartment building had gone into foreclosure and ordering her to vacate her unit by Oct. 31.

The woman, says Ms. Merrill, had lived in the apartment with her two sons for a month. Before that, they were in a unit in another building that also went into foreclosure. In that case, the woman accepted a "cash for keys" offer of $800 to leave the apartment. When she called the hotline, she told Ms. Merrill, "I want to stay here. I'm so sick of moving."

The scope of the problem recently became clear to Judith Liben, a housing attorney at the Massachusetts Law Reform Institute, a Boston legal-services center. After hearing about tenants' evictions in Massachusetts, she asked other housing advocates across the country whether they were seeing similar problems. The response — from Nevada, California, New York and other states — was overwhelming, she says.

In many cases, the homes and apartments entering foreclosure are owned by investors who got low-rate teaser mortgages and intended to hold the buildings for a few years and then sell them at a profit — before their mortgage rates rose. Now, with the housing market badly depressed in many markets, the owners can't sell the homes or afford the higher mortgage payments. Many are defaulting.

In most states, says Ms. Liben, foreclosure voids leases, and banks move quickly to get tenants out. "Depending upon the state, tenants get between three and 30 days notice," she says. A few states have laws protecting tenants from eviction in the event of foreclosure, and others are moving to give renters more notice, Ms. Liben says.

Renters' woes are beginning to attract wider attention. Yesterday, Eric Rosengren, in his first speech as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that the high number of foreclosures on multifamily homes in parts of Massachusetts "highlights a potentially serious problem for tenants, who may not have known that the owner might be in a precarious financial position."

Ms. Liben summed up the problem in testimony last month before the House Financial Services Committee: "It is now clear that, nationwide, tenants who did nothing wrong except to rent from a defaulting owner are suffering harsh collateral damage from the mortgage fallout." She added that foreclosing banks often refuse to pay the utility bills or make repairs on the properties.

In Hennepin County, Minn., which includes Minneapolis and its suburbs, there were more than 3,000 foreclosures last year — nearly twice the 2005 number. "You just wouldn't believe it here," says Amber Hawkins, an attorney with the Foreclosure Relief Law Project, part of the nonprofit Housing Preservation Project based in St. Paul. "There are areas of [North Minneapolis] that are just decimated. House after house is boarded, vacant and abandoned."

Ms. Hawkins says that banks have traditionally pressed renters to leave quickly so that they can resell the property. But, she adds, "nothing is selling right now." As a result, empty buildings end up sitting on the market and become "magnets for criminal activity."

That also means there are fewer homes to rent — even though the number of renters isn't declining.

Danilo Pelletiere, research director at the National Low Income Housing Coalition in Washington, says that in the short term, the number of renters is going to rise faster than the number of available units. "What do you do with the foreclosed homes?" he says. "[Low-income renters] can't necessarily move to a vacant McMansion somewhere out in the suburbs."

Ms. Merrill says the lack of affordable rental units is a huge problem in her area of Massachusetts. "People are applying now for public and subsidized housing," she says, but the waiting lists are long and the alternatives are bleak. Even if Ms. Merrill can find her twice-evicted client another acceptable apartment, she says, "how does she know another place won't be foreclosed on too?"

4 responses so far

Sep 10 2007

Honest Company or Scammers? You decide – Part II

red flag    Last week I received the email that is below.  It's about my "Honest Company or Scammers? You decide" post.  I've reprinted the letter, with permission, removing the names protect the writer's identity.

I was so glad to read this blog on Joanne Pearce. I have been searching for info of any kind for months. I have a house for sale and it has been on the market for over a year. I received an offer from Chi Rho Investments in March that was a great offer. I spoke with 2 different people. Eric and Joanne Pearce. The said they originally were Pearce Enterprises. I was trying to get them to give me any info that I could check their validity. They said they were not able to give out that info but they were on public record in the state of Florida so I could find out that way. I spoke with the bbb and could find nothing. I spoke with the chamber of commerce. nothing. I spoke with the board of realtors. No one had heard of this company. When I questioned them and said I would love to do business with them if I could find just one piece of positive evidence about the people or company they withdrew the offer. I was glad. 2 weeks ago I was contacted again about the same house which is still for sale. This time it was Matthew Pearce and Ann Tate from RidgeCrest Ventures . A Florida Company. The offer was very good and I have until Sept 7 to let them know if I want to move on to the next step. I received a second notice yesterday from Ridgecrest wanting to know if I had any questions about the offer. This time it was signed by Joann Pearce. How in the world can we get this company investigated? I have some computer knowledge but not enough for this. Thanks for your help.

    Here are a couple of the Red Flags that I see in this offer.

  1. Anytime you get an unsolicited offer from an individual or company your antenna should go up.  Not because it could be a scam, but because you know you are dealing with professionals.  If you are dealing with professionals, you need a professional on your side too.  Also in today's worldwide market place where we have scammers sending messages out looking for people to nibble at the hook, we need to be especially diligent to make sure we are dealing with honest and real companies/people.
  2. The company changed their name.  Most companies try to hold on to their name for dear life.  It's their business identity, it's branding, it's just smart business….unless you are trying to hide something.  Also, if you are forced to change your name, you usually try to get something as close to the original as possible unless you have huge amounts of money at your disposal for a marketing campaign to announce to the world your new identity.  If I were Pearce Investments and I needed to change my name, I would not have chosen Chi Rho Investments.  I would have gone with Pearce Enterprises, The Pearce Group, or just Pearce, Inc., something that keep the identity, and thus the reputation of the company, around.  It appears that Eric Pearce and Joanne Pearce, formerly of KACW Investments, WH Investments, In Faith Properties, and Pearce Investments, does not follow the same thought process I do.
  3. Any company that tells you they can't give you their company information is trying to hide something, or they don't have a company.  I'm not sure which it is,  but I wouldn't deal with them.  Companies have to file paperwork to be legitimate companies.  There are business licenses, professional licenses, tax records, etc.  Asking to see copies of licenses is not too much to ask of a company that wants to enter into a business relationship with you.
  4. They pulled out when pressed for company info.  When you have a company and are doing business with people sight unseen, your company is your lifeblood.  You should have a vast amount of independent information available for people to access.  How else would they be able to know that Chi Rho Investments or RidgeCrest Ventures is a true, respected, honest, legitimate company?  Following that train of thought how will they know what to expect from Matthew Pearce, Joanne Pearce, Eric Pearce or Ann Tate?  When the company refused to give me the information I would be glad they walked away.  I would also believe completely that I just saved myself from a headache.
  5. The last set of red flags I will lump together.  Having had the company pull out in the manner they did would keep me on guard.  Being contacted by another company soon after having the first one pulled out would have the cynic in me out in full force.  When one of the principals has the same last name as the previous company my sonar would begin blipping like I was running straight into the Rock of Gibraltar.  It could be coincidence but the cynic in me wouldn't allow my brain to accept it as such.  I would think something is up.  Lastly, after dealing with Matthew Pearce and Ann Tate during the negotiations receiving an offer letter from Joanne Pearce would send me through the roof.  Do you think that Joann Pearce, Helen Pearce, Helen Joanne Pearce…you get the idea and Ann Tate are the same person?

    Could it be possible that Matthew Pearce, formerly of KACW Investments, WH Investments, In Faith Properties, and Pearce Investments, has begun operating under a different name also?  Could he be Eric Pearce or has another Pearce has decided to get into the family business?  From the letter above, it appears that there is now an Eric Pearce working with Joanne Pearce at Chi Rho Investments.  Could this be the same Joanne Pearce that was working at KACW Investments, WH Investments, In Faith Properties, and Pearce Investments?  I know the Real Estate Market is bad, but they were switching companies around like this at the height of the Real Estate Boom!  If the people and the companies are truly separate then Joanne Pearce is moonlighting over at RidgeCrest Ventures along with Matthew Pearce and Ann Tate.  I'm still waiting for Helen Joanne Pearce to get involved in all this.  That cynic in me is screaming.  I don't know if I should believe him or not but he thinks it's possible that KACW Investments, WH Investments, In Faith Properties may have reincarnated themselves yet again as Chi Rho Investments and RidgeCrest Ventures.

    As a final note, I'd like to talk about doing your due diligence.  When someone has a property for sale for an extended period of time it can seem like a Godsend when an offer finally does come in on the property.  Especially in this market, the temptation to jump at an offer will make many people forget to do their due diligence on the person or company making the offer.  While everyone should be on the guard in all real estate dealings, ones like the offer above should send red flags.  Luckily, the person involved knew how to handle everything right from the start by asking for company information and going to check them out.  They may have saved themselves a huge headache by taking a little bit of time to investigate the company "Chi Rho Investments" and subsequently "RidgeCrest Ventures".

    I'm continuing to gather information on these companies and people.  I've actually got a couple leads that I am following.  I'll keep everyone posted as I get more information.

 

web log for us – those that know to do their due diligence on all possible business partners. 

No responses yet

Aug 16 2007

Countrywide Financial Taps in to $11.5 Billion Line of Credit

Countrywide Home Loans    Countrywide Financial tapped into an $11.5 billion line of credit Thursday to "weather the storm" and address its looming liquidity crunch.  Countrywide Financial is the #1 writer of mortgage loans in the United States.  

    During the period that Countrywide was securing it's $11.5 billion in financing the Chairman and CEO, Angelo Mozilo, cashed out 672,000 shares of the company he owned netting him just under $13 million.  Mozilo still owns almost 500,000 shares of the company directly, and has about 850,000 shares held in trust or his 401(k).

    Investors have begun to refuse to buy many loans that are less than "prime".  These include the Alt-A loans, which I've written about here, as well as the subprime loans.  With Countrywide and other companies unable to sell these loans they have to keep them in-house.  This increases their risk if the borrower defaults.  Every default will now come stricky from their bottom line.  They can't help but make sure they cross all their t's and dot all their i's when making loans to those who are riskier.  This will directly affect anyone trying to get a loan from Countrywide.

    I've written in the past what I think is happening to the housing market and the ability of the average Joe to get financing for his house.  I believe this further proves the point.  The ultimate ones who will lose out because of this is the average Joe/Jane.  They will lose on multiple fronts.  

    The cascading affect of this will be less people to buy homes.  With less people buying homes, those homes that are on the market will sit longer.  Those people who have to move for any particualr reason will have to lower their price if they want to sell quickly.  This will in turn cause others to lower their prices.  It's a cascading effect that will casue a correction in the market.

    Another place to lose is the investor market.  Those that had money invested in Countrywide wither directly by owning stock or having a mutual fund that owns their stock has seen the invidual stock price go from $35.14 one month ago to hitting a low of $15.00 today.  Any stock losing more then half it's value in a month can hit the average person hard, especially if they bought high.

    Countrywide is a company that has diversified itself among the competition.  They have separated many parts of their business into separate comapnies and have leveraged the selling of security backed loans as a way to protect themselves.  Will they survive this mess?  I believe they will.  Will they take a hard hit?  I believe they will.  Will I be buying their stock?  Eventually.  I think that it will hit around $11 or $12 as a low then start to rise.  If it hits that low I will be buying.

    How will this affect those who have rental properties?  As I stated before, I hope everyone lined their financing up previously for the future.  There will be a lot of people losing their homes.  I may sound like a vulture, but I am not hoping for this to happen.  I believe it will just be a fact.  Too many people got in over their heads and the correction will cause them to lose their homes.  With this will come a great deal of short sales and foreclosures.  Those that have their financing lined up can use this to get ahead.  Market corrections for rents are already happening.  Here in Philadelphia rents have risen and applicants are aplenty.  

web log for us – those that see the calm before the storm as a time to plan for it's coming

 

10/30/07 EDIT:  5 days ago Countrywide hit it's 52 week low of 12.07.  Today, 5 days later, it has jumped back up to $16.31.  I guess I wasn't the only one that had an eye out for the $12.00 mark to start buying this stock up. 

One response so far

« Prev - Next »